World Cup 2026: why Senegal can still snatch qualification

The scenario remains complex, but it is far from impossible. To hope to finish among the best third-placed qualifiers and continue their journey in this poorly started 2026 World Cup, Senegal must first do their part by beating Iraq by at least 1-0. This narrow victory would allow them to finish with three points and a goal difference of -2.

But Pape Thiaw's men will also have to closely monitor the results of several direct competitors.

Group A under close watch

In Group A, Senegal needs South Africa not to beat South Korea. A draw or defeat for the South Africans would leave them with only one or two points.

The same requirement applies to the Czech Republic against Mexico. A defeat or a draw would prevent the Czechs from surpassing the two-point mark.

Ecuador and Curaçao must not win

Group E could also work in favor of the Lions. Ecuador must be held to a draw or beaten by Germany to remain stuck at one or two points.

At the same time, Curaçao must not win against Ivory Coast. A draw or defeat would doom the Caribbean team to a total of one or two points.

Spain and Cape Verde for a helping hand

Group H represents another key piece of the puzzle. A win for Spain against Uruguay would leave the South Americans at two points.

Elsewhere, a draw between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia would suit Senegal’s interests. The Saudis would finish with two points while Cape Verde, with three, would secure qualification in second place in the group. If the Saudis win and at the same time Spain beats Uruguay, both Cape Verdeans and Uruguayans would then have two points and be eliminated.

The final obstacle: Bosnia, Qatar or Ghana

Two distinct scenarios can finally open the door for Senegal.

In Group B, a draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar would allow both teams to finish with two points, not enough to continue their journey.

The alternative lies in Group L. Ghana would then need to lose to England by at least two goals, before suffering another two-goal defeat against Croatia in their last match. The Black Stars would then finish the group stage with three points and a goal difference of -3.

Qualification within reach

If all these results materialize, a 1-0 Senegalese victory over Iraq would be enough. The Lions would finish with three points and a goal difference of -2, a record that would allow them to overtake several direct competitors in the race for qualifying spots. A bigger win would further boost their chances by improving their goal difference.

Despite a disappointing campaign after two games and zero points, Senegal hasn’t said their last word yet. But before looking elsewhere, they must first beat Iraq and keep hope alive for a favorable scenario on the various pitches of the World Cup.