AFCON with 28 teams: An ambitious expansion at the wrong time?

A more open AFCON, an assumed development lever
The announcement made by Patrice Motsepe marks a new step in the transformation of the African Cup of Nations. After the transition from 16 to 24 teams in 2019, the Confederation of African Football  continues its logic of expansion by further opening the competition to the selections of the continent.

To this is added a change of pace, since the competition will become quadrennial from 2028, with the stated ambition to strengthen its prestige and value. In substance, this evolution responds to a logic that is difficult to challenge. The widening of the format allows to integrate nations hitherto on the sidelines of the very high African level and offers increased exposure to emerging selections. Recent editions have shown that openness can foster the emergence of new competitive players like the Comoros in 2022, while participating in the structuring of football in certain regions of the continent.

At the same time, CAF pursues a clear economic objective. By increasing the number of matches, it strengthens the competition’s commercial potential, whether in terms of audiovisual rights or partnerships. The AFCON is thus thought of as a more attractive product, capable of gaining weight on the international scene.

The risk of a reform disconnected from the realities on the ground
But this ambition runs up against several limits, starting with the question of the sporting level. By integrating more teams, the competition takes the risk of accentuating the gaps between the most structured nations and those that are less so. The density that makes the reputation of the competition could be weakened, with unbalanced encounters and a less demanding group stage.

Above all, this reform takes place in a fragile organizational context. As the AFCON 2027 approaches, doubts persist about the ability of host countries to deliver infrastructure that meets the required standards. Delays in construction sites, unapproved stadiums and recurring logistical difficulties fuel the concerns.

Under these conditions, the increase in the number of participants raises a fundamental question. Hosting 28 teams requires increased resources, both in terms of infrastructure and organization. However, many countries are already struggling to meet the current requirements. This contradiction undermines the coherence of the reform. The transition to a quadrennial AFCON also raises questions. If it can reinforce the symbolic value of the competition, it profoundly modifies its rhythm and could weaken its popular anchoring, built on a biennial regularity.

A reform under pressure, with 2027 as an organizational barometer
In this context, the 2027 edition  will not constitute a test of the new format, since the expansion to 28 teams will only come into effect from 2028. It is nevertheless a crucial indicator of the ability of CAF to organize a competition in accordance with its own requirements.

Because even before increasing the number of participants, the central question remains that of organizational control. Delays in infrastructure, unapproved stadiums, logistical requirements that are difficult to meet: the current signals call for caution.

Under these conditions, the success of AFCON 2027 appears as an essential prerequisite. Not to validate the 28-team format, but to demonstrate that African football has the necessary bases to support an even more demanding competition.

If these foundations are not firmly established, the enlargement planned for 2028 could appear as a headlong rush. Conversely, a controlled organization would strengthen the credibility of the reform and give weight to the ambition supported by the CAF.