AFCON 2027 qualifiers: Guinea-Bissau and Gambia perfect, Ghana pointless after two rounds

Ghana had 74% of possession against Gambia on Tuesday 29 September at the Accra Sports Stadium. They led 2-0 after 33 minutes. They lost 2-4. "Those two first-half goals killed morale and made my players nervous," Carlos Queiroz explained at a press conference, according to the Ghanaian federation's website (translated by SNA). On Thursday, the Portuguese coach and the federation parted ways by mutual consent.

All scores, with scorers and statistics for every match, are live on our Matches page: 29 September and 30 September. Guinea–Kenya can be followed live on the match page.

Bottom of Group C, the Black Stars are, along with Ethiopia, the only former African champions without a single point. The calculations cover the 46 matches completed by 13:00 on 1 October (Brazzaville time).

Former champions against the rest

Fifteen teams have already lifted the AFCON. Between them they have taken 52 points out of a possible 90. But five matches pitted two former winners against each other, and 16 of the 30 points at stake there were automatically forfeited, since one of the two could not win. Against sides that have never won the title, the former champions have taken 38 points out of 60, or 63%.

In those 20 meetings, they won 11, drew 5 and lost 4. The four defeats: Congo beaten by Namibia (0-1), Ghana by Gambia (2-4), Sudan by Mozambique (1-4) and Nigeria by Guinea-Bissau (0-3).

Four former winners have six points: Morocco, Ivory Coast, DR Congo and South Africa. Four have yet to win: Ghana and Ethiopia (0 points), Congo (1) and Tunisia (2). The Djurtus (Guinea-Bissau) have not conceded a goal: 2-0 in Zanzibar against Tanzania, then 3-0 against the Super Eagles.

In the host nations' groups, only one place

Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, the co-hosts, are qualified automatically but are still playing in the qualifiers. In their groups, D, H and L, only the best non-host team earns a ticket, instead of two elsewhere.

Uganda lead Group H with 4 points, but their place is already secured. The only place at stake now belongs to Botswana, ahead of Tunisia on level points (2) in the standings as at 1 October. The Eagles of Carthage have drawn twice at home, 1-1 against Uganda then 2-2 against Botswana.

In Group L, Guinea-Bissau (6 points), Nigeria (3) and Madagascar (1) are fighting for a single ticket. In Group D, South Africa (6 points) have pulled ahead by beating Eritrea 5-0 on Wednesday in Cairo, with a brace from Relebohile Mofokeng.

One match in four far from home

Twelve of the 46 matches, or 26%, were played outside the home team's country. Morocco hosted four, in Casablanca (twice), El Jadida and Meknès, for Mauritania, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone and Madagascar. Sudan hosted in Juba, Niger in Accra, Namibia in Gaborone, Equatorial Guinea in Yaoundé, Lesotho in Bloemfontein, Eritrea in Cairo and Benin in Abidjan. Somalia "hosted" Ivory Coast in Abidjan, in other words on their opponent's ground.

The "exiled" sides won 6 of those 12 matches (50%), against 18 of 34 (53%) for those genuinely playing at home. The gap is less than one match.

On goals: 2.65 per match (122 in 46), a single 0-0 (Egypt–Angola) and two 5-0 away wins, South Africa's in Cairo and Egypt's in Juba.

The limits of the sample

Two rounds means two matches out of six. Ghana still have four games to make up a six-point deficit on second place. Their possession in Accra did not translate into shots on target: 4, against 5 for Gambia. Across twelve relocated matches, a single reversed result shifts the percentage by eight points: the absence of a gap is an observation, not a law.

The second round is not complete: Guinea–Kenya is played on Thursday at 16:00 GMT (17:00 in Brazzaville) in Conakry, and Angola–Malawi on 6 October. Several teams are level on points, such as Senegal and Mozambique in Group J, or Botswana and Tunisia in Group H: the standings are as at 1 October.

Rounds three and four are scheduled from 9 to 17 November.

Our view

In our view, and with no point of comparison with previous campaigns, the hierarchy has not been overturned: four former champions with perfect records and 63% of points taken against nations without a title is not a revolution. The 2027 format nonetheless makes every slip more costly for three of them, placed in a host-nation group with a single place. South Africa hold that place. Nigeria and Tunisia do not.

Ghana's case is different: Group C, with no host nation, offers two places, but Ivory Coast and Gambia are six points ahead and the Black Stars have just parted with their coach. In November, Nigeria will have to take three points back from Guinea-Bissau, and Tunisia move ahead of Botswana, for the single place in their group to change hands.

The SNA newsroom

Live match pages on SNA (scorers, statistics, line-ups)

Group C: Ivory Coast – Ghana (2-0) · Ghana – Gambia (2-4) · Somalia – Ivory Coast (0-2)

Group D: Eritrea – South Africa (0-5) · Guinea – Kenya (Thursday, 17:00)

Group H: Tunisia – Uganda (1-1) · Tunisia – Botswana (2-2)

Group L: Tanzania – Guinea-Bissau (0-2) · Guinea-Bissau – Nigeria (3-0)

And also: Namibia – Congo (1-0) · Mozambique – Sudan (4-1) · Egypt – Angola (0-0) · South Sudan – Egypt (0-5)

Photo: Senyuiedzorm / ImagesImage – Ghana Football Association