2026 World Cup: why Cape Verde can cause an upset against Argentina

Cape Verde did not win any of its three group stage matches and yet finds itself in the round of 16 against the title holder. Three draws (0-0 against Spain, 2-2 against Uruguay, 0-0 against Saudi Arabia) were enough for the Blue Sharks to secure an unprecedented qualification, and this winless run actually hides the real reasons to believe this Friday.

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2026 World Cup: why Cape Verde can cause an upset against Argentina

A defense that has already tamed a favorite

The most telling point remains that 0-0 draw snatched from Spain, one of the teams most frequently mentioned as favorites for the title. The numbers from this match (74% possession and 27 shots for La Roja, compared to just 6 for Cape Verde) tell the story of a team that accepted to endure pressure in order to better shut down the spaces. The very deep defensive block totally stifled Spain’s attacking play. Against Argentina, this game plan has every reason to be used again, and it has already proved effective against stronger opponents.

Vozinha, the safe hands between the posts

At 40 years old, goalkeeper Vozinha was named man of the match against Spain and made several decisive saves throughout the group stage. A keeper in this kind of form, capable of stringing together saves during extended periods of opponent dominance, is exactly the kind of profile that can derail a team that is superior on paper.

No pressure, everything to gain

For their very first World Cup appearance, Cape Verde is playing without the weight of expectations. Argentina, meanwhile, has to live up to being reigning world champion, with the internal awareness that an early elimination would be seen as a major underachievement. This psychological asymmetry could work in favor of the Blue Sharks, who are approaching this round of 16 match as a bonus already written in golden letters in their history.

An Albiceleste not totally settled

Lionel Scaloni rotated heavily in the last group match, making eight changes against Jordan, and the starting eleven needs to rediscover its rhythm. Otamendi, 38, is competing with Romero, whose fitness remains uncertain. These small doubts, even if marginal at this level, are the kind of details that a well-organized and disciplined team like Cape Verde may try to exploit.

No previous encounters, so no inferiority complex

The two teams have never faced each other, neither in an official match nor a friendly. With no history of clashes, there are no negative psychological factors for the Cape Verdeans to overcome, unlike other small nations that enter these big matches with a baggage of disappointments.

Individual talent is still very much on the Argentine side, driven by a dazzling Messi with six goals in three matches. But a disciplined block, a keeper in inspired form, and reversed pressure make up a cocktail that has already caused surprises. One thing is certain, you couldn’t ask for a better setup to make you want to watch a match between the underdog and the reigning champion.

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À propos de l'auteur

El Hadji Malick SARR

El Hadji Malick SARR

Rédacteur sportif

Passionné de sport depuis toujours, partage avec vous les dernières actualités et analyses du monde sportif.

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