AFCON 2025 (Q): Benin need a win to stay in the hunt
Benin's Cheetahs (Les Guépards) could book their place at the Africa Cup of Nations, AFCON Morocco 2025, as early as Thursday against Nigeria.
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With six points from four games, Benin currently sit second in Group D of the AFCON 2025 qualifiers, behind Nigeria, who have 10 points. One point ahead of Rwanda, Benin are well placed to reach the finals. The Cheetahs of Benin can seal qualification on Thursday evening, provided Rwanda fail to beat Libya, either drawing or losing, and Benin beat Nigeria's Super Eagles. That scenario would take Benin to nine points and see them qualify automatically.
Read more: AFCON 2025 (Q) - Benin: supporters go from hope to disappointment
However, if Rwanda beat Libya, the Cheetahs of Benin will definitely not qualify on Thursday. In that case, Rwanda, third in the group, would have eight points and the decision would be pushed back to the 6th and final round of the AFCON 2025 qualifiers. That last matchday would be decisive: the Cheetahs would need to beat Libya, because a Rwanda win over Nigeria could allow the Rwandans to overtake the Beninese in the final standings.
Gernot Rohr not optimistic
The scenario above does little to reassure Benin coach Gernot Rohr, who, ahead of the match against Nigeria, does not expect Rwanda to lose at home to Libya. "I'd be surprised if Rwanda lost to Libya. I don't believe it, because Rwanda will be hard to beat at home. They have the backing of the crowd there."
For Rohr, everything will be settled on the final matchday against Libya. "I think qualification will be decided in the last game against Libya. We will be ready for that match and we will do everything to be at the next AFCON."
Scenarios if they draw or lose against Nigeria ...
If Benin draw with Nigeria and Rwanda beat Libya, Rwanda would go ahead on 8 points. To qualify, Benin would have to beat Libya on the 6th and final matchday, and even that would depend on Rwanda not beating Nigeria. On the other hand, if Rwanda lose or draw against Libya on this 5th matchday of the AFCON 2025 qualifiers, a win for the Cheetahs of Benin in the 6th round against Libya would guarantee qualification for AFCON 2025 with 10 points.
If they lose to Nigeria on Thursday, Benin's qualification would be in jeopardy. If Rwanda win their games against Libya and Nigeria, Benin would be eliminated. But if Rwanda lose to Libya on the 5th matchday, Benin would still be alive.
Benin face Nigeria on Thursday 14 November at 19:00 GMT at the Stade Félix-Houphouët Boigny in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, and Libya on Monday 18 November 2024 at 16:00 GMT at the 11 June Stadium in Tripoli, in the 5th and 6th rounds of the AFCON 2025 qualifiers.