Morocco or Egypt: who will carry Africa's colors the furthest at the 2026 World Cup?

Morocco, natural favorite and credible outsider

On paper as well as on the field, the Atlas Lions seem today the best equipped. A solid group stage (2nd in Group C, with a draw against Brazil), then a qualification snatched on penalties against the Netherlands, a sign of mental strength already forged by the historic run in 2022, when Morocco reached the semi-finals.

What stands out above all is the consistency: unbeaten since the CAN final against Senegal. This record reflects a balanced squad, carried by a high-quality midfield: the trio of Ayyoub Bouaddi – Neil El Aynaoui – Azzedine Ounahi, and individuals capable of making the difference, such as Ismael Saibari or Brahim Diaz. Coach Mohamed Ouahbi does have to cope with the absences of Abde Ezzalzouli and Nayef Aguerd, but the team has shown it can withstand this kind of setback without falling apart.

Against Canada, the host nation full of enthusiasm but discovering this stage of the competition for the first time in its history, Morocco is a clear favorite: bookmakers give it about a 55% chance of qualifying, versus less than 20% for the Canadians. A Moroccan victory would open the door to a quarter-final against the winner of France - Paraguay. A tough challenge, but not out of reach for a team that has already gone toe-to-toe with the best.

Egypt, the unknown against the Albiceleste

Egypt's story is different, almost miraculous. The Pharaohs, led by Mohamed Salah, have just won their very first knockout match in a World Cup, eliminating Australia on penalties. A performance with real symbolic value, but which should not hide the size of the challenge that their next opponent represents: Argentina, reigning world champions, led by a still decisive Lionel Messi (top scorer of the tournament with 7 goals).

The South Americans themselves had a scare against Cape Verde, whom they only defeated after extra time (3-2), proof that they are not invincible. But the gap in experience, individual quality and collective solidity remains clear. For Egypt, pulling off an upset against Argentina would be almost a sporting miracle, not impossible in a World Cup that has already delivered its share of surprises, but much less likely than a Moroccan qualification.

Between a Morocco that ticks all the boxes (form, top-level experience, squad depth, favorite status against its opponent) and an Egypt that will have to play the match of its life against one of the giants of the tournament, logic clearly favors the Atlas Lions. Morocco has the means to reach at least the quarter-finals, if not repeat its 2022 journey. Egypt, for its part, will play without pressure, as a total outsider, hoping that a moment of magic from Salah will be enough to make history.

Answer to come, on the pitches of Houston and Atlanta.